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Dec 21, 2014

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Home » Technical Analysis » Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 21st – January 25th 2013)

Weekly Forex Market Followup (January 21st – January 25th 2013)

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 21st through January 25th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 21st through January 25th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, January 21st

  • All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings. Paul De Grauwe of the London School of Economics stated that, “The power in elsewhere, in Berlin, and to a much lesser extent in Paris. This is going to be the same – an ineffectual Eurogroup dominated by what’s decided in Berlin.” The currency rose.
  • All Day USD Bank Holiday. The currency was unchanged.

Tuesday, January 22nd

  • 3:47am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that, “The Bank recognizes that the inflation rate consistent with price stability on a sustainable basis will rise as efforts by a wide range of entities toward strengthening competitiveness and growth potential of Japan’s economy make progress. Based on this recognition, the Bank sets the price stability target at 2 percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI).” The currency rose.
  • 3:47am JPY Overnight Call Rate versus <0.10% expected.
  • 6:04am BOJ Press Conference. Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said that, “It is obviously necessary to share common policy goals between the government and the BOJ and strengthen cooperation.”
  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 31.5 versus 12.2 expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.94M versus 5.09M expected. The currency fell.
  • 6:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “This confidence is to a large extent built on the progress that all of us – governments, parliaments, the EU and the ECB – have been able to make during 2012, but it is also crucially built on the expectation that progress will persist.” The currency rose.

Wednesday, January 23rd

  • 12:30am AUD CPI 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -12.1K versus 0.3K expected. The currency fell.
  • 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote 0-0-9, as expected. They noted that, “Inflation was a little above the 2% target, and was likely to remain so in the near term. Wage growth had remained subdued and, while productivity growth was also weak, the Committee’s central view remained that productivity growth would pick up as the economy expanded.”
  • 3:00pm CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report noted that, “The slowdown in the Canadian economy in the second half of 2012 was more pronounced than anticipated and economic activity is expected to be more restrained. The economy is now forecast to return to full capacity in the second half of 2014.” The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, “The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.”
  • 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate 1.00%, as expected.
  • 4:15pm CAD BOC Press Conference BOC Governor Mark Carney said that, “What is not right for the Canadian economy as a whole is to lead with monetary policy, adjust interest rates solely to address issues in the mortgage market. We are collectively managing the situation.”

Thursday, January 24th

  • 1:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 versus last 51.5 expected. 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.8 versus 47.1 expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 330K versus 361K expected. The currency rose.

Friday, January 25th

  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 104.2 versus 103.1 expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP -0.3% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI -0.6% versus -0.2% expected. The currency fell.
    3:00pm USD New Home Sales 369K versus 383K expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.3310 open to a 1.3457 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 90.14 open to a 91.02 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.5849 open to a 1.5797 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0500 open to a 1.0416 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Higher from a 0.9921 open to a 1.0081 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.8360 open to a 0.8372 close.

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