Having rallied sharply on Monday, crude price went sideways in the morning session of Asian trade. Brent crude price hit one-year high at $53.72 per barrel, while U.S light, sweet crude WTI re-attempted the highest in six months at $51.58 per barrel. The rally came from comments from top leaders of Saudi Arabia and Russia, who reinforced the possibility of a global deal to curb production being reached in the next OPEC’s formal meeting in November.
However, Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients dated October 10th, supposed that the oil market is not likely to re-balance in 2017, even OPEC and other oil exporters can unleash an agreement to freeze or cut output. It is not only because any reduction will not be deep enough to trim the currently global surplus, but also since higher prices would allow U.S. shale drillers to raise output.
Moving on to China, Premier Li Keqiang said on Tuesday that Chinese economy had shown positive changes in last quarter, and the country’s debt risks have been under control. Li also claimed that the world’s second largest economy is fully capable of maintaining medium- to high-speed growth and the government will take action to stabilize the property market.
Commenting on the case of the U.S Federal Reserve to raise rate in December, Fed Chicago President Charles Evans said on Tuesday he “could be fine”, but he would prefer to see more evidences of the economy and especially inflation making progress before deciding. Evans said last Friday’s non-farm payrolls report was a “pretty good number”, which indicated the U.S. economy was on a solid footing, therefore, a hike in December would not be a surprise.
EURCHF has generally been on a steady rally as the pair has been supported by two moving averages placed below the price action. As can be observed from the price chart, since the start of this month, the pair has never dropped below the lower dynamic support which is the long-term MA50. The market remains in the bullish zone with RSI once again rebounding from the 50-line. The target at 61.8% level is within the sight.
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USDCAD has just pulled back from the upwards slopping trend line that has connecting higher lows since September 07th. The pair peek out of the support yesterday but failed to sustain the bearish momentum. The U.S dollar is anticipated to surge back above the two moving averages. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the % K line penetrating the %D line from below has consolidated the upside.
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For the third time of this month, USDCHF surpassed the resistance at 0.98170. The currency pair had to give up its rally and reversed downwards back below this level two times before as market had been close or in the oversold territory. This time, even the U.S dollar has already made a breakout, RSI index has only surged to 65.44, which indicated that there is more room for the pair to soar higher. Higher lows and higher highs also reflects stronger bulls, not to mention the divergence between +DI and –DI lines of the ADX chart.
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Silver has been trading under indecisive mood following some corrective moves last Friday. Silver market has escaped from the overbought zone but is still in favor of sellers, as indicated by the RSI chart. The grey metal is expected to return to the downtrend as it remains challenging for silver price action to cross over the short-term MA20.
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Copper has fell into a consolidation after soaring strongly since last Friday. Recent candles that showed short bodies suggested an equal force between buyers and sellers. However, bulls are expected to regain strength to boost price higher. Not only does RSI remain above 50 but the large gap between +DI and –DI line suggest upbeat moves.
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For the last month, U.S Dow Jones index has been moving in a shrinking range with lower highs and higher lows. The index breached the upper boundary yesterday but could not go far from the down trend line and eventually fell back into the range. As consolidated by stochastic indicator with %K line crossed over the %D line southwards, Dow Jones may fall further.
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