Daily Report on September 08, 2016
Crude prices extended their winning streak in early trading on Thursday after data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday indicated that U.S crude stocks unexpectedly dropped by 12.1 million barrels last week. Oil hit one-week highs as the report was starkly contrasting with expectations of an increase of 200,000 barrels. Official data from the U.S government will be out later today. Should the data from the EIA confirm the drawdown, it will be the largest weekly decline since April 1985.
Also on Wednesday, the U.S Labor Department published its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, which pointed to tightening conditions in the labour market. U.S. job openings were reported to have surged to a record high in July. However, employers were having difficulty in filling vacancies with appropriately qualified workers.
The number for worker demand increased by 228,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.9 million – the highest level since the survey was started. In theory, this situation could spur faster wage growth. But according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book report, “expectations of wage growth for the coming months were modest” as a strong labor market failed to create much upward pressure on wages and prices.
Data from Japan reported on Thursday that the Japanese economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter compared with the same quarter last year. The reading for the annualized growth rate was revised upwards, from a preliminary reading of a 0.2% expansion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the world’s third biggest economy expanded by 0.2%, largely due to upbeat capital expenditure and inventories, which outpaced the decline in domestic and overseas demand caused by a strong yen.
Official data from the Customs General Administration of China reported that the country’s trade surplus in August was slightly below July’s $52.31 billion at $52.05 billion and missed estimates for a reading of $58 billion. Weakening exports continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. Exports slid by 2.8 percent on a year-on-year basis, following July’s 4.4 percent drop.
Investors are shifting their attention to the meeting of the European Central Bank where all main rates are expected to be left unchanged. President Mario Draghi will update growth and inflation projections in the Press Conference due after the rate decision.
NZDUSD has broken above the ascending channel but has currently been trading sideways below the 50.0% retracement at 0.74709. The pair is currently locked between the upwards sloping trendline, marking the boundary of the ascending channel, which is acting as a support and the resistance at the 50.0% Fibonacci level. A breakout is expected as the trading range is becoming narrower. The ADX is still pointing upwards, suggesting a continual uptrend.
Buy Digital Call Option from 0.74750 to 0.75200 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016
CADJPY has been moving sideways within the price range from 78.750 to 79.175. The pair is currently in a phase of consolidation, after a sharp decline from a more than one month high at 80.298. The pair is under the downward pressure heaped by the two MAs placed above the price action. The short term MA20 has been an especially strong level of resistance so far, and has forced the price to reverse lower every time CADJPY has hit this resistance. Further declines are expected.
Buy Digital Put Option from 78.750 to 78.500 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016
USDCAD retreated after failing to break back above the support trendline underlying the price action created since August 18. After having violated the uptrend on Monday, the pair bounced back from the support at 1.28300 but could not cross back over the support trendline at around 1.29126, and was further pressured by the MA20 hovering above the price action. The market has remained in bearish territory but the near-term support at 1.28570 should be monitored carefully.
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.28570 to 1.28300 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016
Silver resumed the uptrend after retreating from the high at 20.100. While the %K line reversed higher to penetrate the %D line from below, RSI remains in the bullish zone, indicating an overwhelming bull. With two MAs placed below the price action, silver is on course to soar higher.
Buy Digital Call Option from 19.900 to 20.100 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016
Copper has breached the solid resistance at 2.0900 which restrained the metal for two weeks until yesterday. The RSI index has surged above the 50 line, and the MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from below, preparing the stage for further advances in copper. Nonetheless, the up-move could be limited as prices are moving in an upward sloping channel and the upper boundary of the channel is foreseen to be a firm handle, where prices could be contained.
Buy Digital Call Option from 2.1050 to 2.1170 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016
The Nasdaq failed to surpass major resistance at 4837.00, yet again, yesterday. Bulls are overshadowing the market but also taking cautious steps when facing this key level. The two MAs placed below the price action, are continuously fueling bullish momentum in the index but a chance for a break out is still even. Any considerable force that could help the index one way or the other, would need to come from the fundamental side. Therefore traders should be patient ahead of the crude oil inventory data due later today.
Buy Digital Put Option from 4837.00 to 4811.50 valid until 20:00 GMT September 08, 2016