Technical Bias: Neutral
- EURUSD falls from more than 3-month highs to trade in the mid-1.13s.
- Greece aiming to reach an agreement with creditors by end of May to stave off default.
- US homebuilder confidence eases slightly in May, according to NAHB.
The EURUSD fell from more than three-month highs on Monday, declining 100 pips amid escalating fears about a Greek default as early as June 5.
The EURUSD bottomed out at 1.1341 in intraday trade. It would subsequently consolidate at 1.1352, declining 0.8 percent. Initial support is likely found at 1.1335. On the upside, near-term resistance is at 1.1463.
The RSI has turned negative on the 1-hour chart, hinting at further weakness for the euro. However, the daily chart has yet to confirm a broad reversal, suggesting a neutral long-term outlook for the EURUSD.
Greece Fears Escalate
Greece could default on its debt obligations as early as June 5, according to a leaked document released over the weekend by the International Monetary Fund.
In a memo dated May 14, IMF staff said, “There will be no possibility for the Greek authorities to repay the whale amount unless an agreement is reached with international partners.”
The Greek government said on Monday it aims to reach an agreement with international creditors by the end of May. The cash-strapped government is close to running out of cash, having only last week tapped into emergency funds to secure a €750 million interest payment to the IMF.
US Homebuilder Confidence Edges Lower
In economic data, US homebuilder confidence cooled unexpectedly in May, but remained in positive territory, suggesting further improvements in the months ahead. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index decreased by two points to 54.
Compared to May 2014, the HMI was up nine points.
“Despite this month’s slight dip, builder confidence in the new home market remains above the 50-point benchmark,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods. “Overall, the second quarter of 2015 is shaping up to be very solid.”
Added NAHB chief economist David Crowe, “Consumers are exhibiting caution, and want to be on more stable financial footing before purchasing a home.”
He added, “On the bright side, the HMI component measuring future sales expectations has been tracking upward all year, mortgage rates remain low, and house prices are affordable. These factors should spur the release of pent-up demand moving forward.”