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Home » Latest News » Option Banque Technical Analysis Report: 11-Apr-2016

Option Banque Technical Analysis Report: 11-Apr-2016

Posted by Option_Banque in Latest News - April 11th, 2016 4:02 am GMT

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Read full technical analysis report here

Japanese Yen kept surging on Monday as demand for this safe-haven assets did not show any signs of abating. Being strong on the peak of the last 17 months, the currency is drawing warnings from Tokyo that the government should takes steps if needed. Japan’s top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, said on Monday that recent currency moves were one-sided and speculative. He added that the agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to currency moves.

However, these current verbal intervention seems in vain as the Yen is too strong even after the shift of the BOJ to negative rate in January. This is partly due to the fact that investors gave up on the outlook of Fed to raise its interest rate in near future after dovish stance of Fed’s official revealed in March’s meeting minutes. Another reason for the steady surge of the Yen is that this currency has been devaluated too far from its long-term fair value near 90.00, according to Credit Suisse. Therefore, the BOJ could not sell more Yen against U.S dollar to balance the market. Data released early on Monday showed Japan’s core machinery orders fell less than anticipated at the pace of 9.2 percent in February from the previous month.

Chinese National Bureau of Statistics published its Consumer Price inflation to be unchanged from the year on year pace of February at 2.3 percent. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index for March declined less than anticipated at -4.3 percent. These are signals that deflationary pressure in the industrial sector may be easing. The government is aiming at transforming its export-based economy to one centered on consumption and services.

On commodities market, crude price is paring its gains last week after report showed that Iraq increased crude output to a record level in March. According to the state-run Oil Marketing Co, crude output of OPEC’s second-biggest producer advanced to 4.55 million barrels per day. Co. Exports increased to 3.81 million barrels a day in March from the level of 3.32 million in the previous month. The meeting between OPEC members and other producers on capping production to curb a global glut will be held on this Sunday.

Technicals

GBPJPY

The pair bounced back from the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 154.079 and is pointing to retest the low of 151.621 on last Thursday. The price remains under the moving average 20, showing a strong downward pressure. This slide may extend as the RSI (14) is lingering around the 30 threshold and shows no sign of recovery

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 151.665, Buy Digital Call Option at 152.988.

USDCHF

For the last couple of months, U.S dollar has been on a slump against its Swiss counterpart. After each moderate advance, the pair is tend to witness a sharp downfall and consistently form new low. The RSI (14) has remained at low level of around 33.69, showing a strong bearish market. As the price has not penetrated the oversold zone yet, there are still room for a further downfall.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 0.94741, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.95720.

EURCAD

Euro has been trading in a shrinking range against the Loonie. The pair is currently moving sideways around 1.48200 with a huge chance of ticking down, as the RSI (14) has lowered to 38.63. Besides, the resistance at 1.48248 is quite a strong one as it has restrained the price from surging up at least 4 times in the past.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.47180, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.48343.

GOLD

Gold trimmed its rally starting on last Friday, when it bounced back from the 23.6 Fibonacci level at $1234.07 per troy ounce. From then on, gold ticked up more than 160 pips to hit the high of $1252.05 per troy ounce. The RSI (14) has already reach the overbought zone. Therefore, the price is witnessing some short of correction.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1253.68, Buy Digital Put Option at 1239.12.

COPPER

The metal is extending its losses after a short correction from the one-and-a-half-month low of $2.0732 and is much likely to break this support to drop further to form the new low of 2.0552. The ADX (14) has lowered to below 20, while the –DI is about to cross over the +DI, which indicates that there is set to witness a trend change.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0552, Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1019.

SP500

The gauge of 500 U.S blue chips has been downwards lately although the current slide is not a strong trend as the ADX (14) keeps falling further from the high of 40.70. The balance of the market is also reflected through the RSI (14) index, which has been lingering around 42.33 since last Friday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 2050.66, Buy Digital Put Option at 2032.30.

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