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Asian and European market dipped on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan held its stimulus program unchanged in March meeting, after surprisingly shifting into negative rate in January.
Meanwhile, the March meeting of the FOMC tomorrow may settle down in unchanged monetary policy. Beside solid labor market, the U.S economy is in the risks of global slowdown and the easing from other central bank, which makes the U.S dollar appreciate versus almost of its peers and creates more headwinds to the largest economy’s manufacturing sector.
On the commodity market, crude price declined yesterday after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Iran might not join other oil producers in freezing output at January level until the OPEC member boosts its production by 1 million barrels per day by June. From the February level of about 3 million barrels per day, Iran plans to restore its output back to the before-sanction level.
Other three members of OPEC including Arab Saudi, will meet Russia at the end of this week to renew the January deal of cutting output to stabilize the market.
According to a report by The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, India’s oil demand grew by 300,000 barrels a day last year. Meanwhile, China’s growth has slowed to 300,000 barrels from an average 500,000 barrels in the decade to 2013 as the government moves the economy away from heavy industry. The report has brought some hope to the
The U.S dollar bounced back from the resistance at 113.957 last candles and was extending the slide to head for the support at 112.700. The price crossed over both long-term and short-term from above, showing a strong downtrend. The RSI (14) has lowered to below 50 at 39.1 from 60, which confirmed the retreat. A correction is expected soon once the price hit the support.
Buy Digital Call Option at 113.890, Buy Digital Put Option at 112.640
The Aussie continues its uptrend as the price remains staying above the MA20. However, the bull has been losing its momentum lately with the RSI (14) nearly moves sideways under the 70 threshold.
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11500, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.12670
The pair has been upwards since it hit the low of 0.78353, up 0.35 percent to trade close the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement at 0.78076. The current rally is strongly confirmed with the ADX (14) stays at 33.83, and the +DI is expanding the distance with the –DI.
A reverse may not happen soon as the RSI (14), which has inched up to 58.78, showing that there are still room for the bull to gain momentum and push the price higher.
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.78360, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78000
The West Texas Intermediate has closed lower in 6 out of the last 7 candles, down to below $38 per barrel, from the three-month high of above $40 per barrel on March 11. The crude price crossed over the MA50 and is heading for the 23.6 Fibonacci support at 37.43.
The slide is quite strong and may last long as the RSI (14) has only lowered to 32.35, has not entered the oversold zone yet. Moreover, the ADX (14) has rocketed to 37.7, with the distance between the –DI and +DI gets further. A correction is expected then.
Buy Digital Call Option at 38.93, Buy Digital Put Option at 37.20
In general, the index has been in an uptrend. However, the futures for the gauge of 500 U.S blue chips has been on a retreat today and likely to come back the sideway range of 1969.5 and 2003.0.
The RSI (14) has lowered to 48.84 from 66, confirming the downtrend.
Buy Digital Put Option at 1990.0, Buy Digital Call Option at 2005.5
The Germany’s gauge retreated 0.83 percent to be held near the support of 9886.1. If breaks through this level, the index may fall further to the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 9732.1. The benchmark has been upwards for a month but the momentum appears to steam out.
Buy Digital Put Option at 9889.0, Buy Digital Call Option at 9983.0