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USDCHF Heading Down?

Key Points

  • US Dollar after failing to break the 1.0160 resistance area against the Swiss Franc traded lower.
  • The USDCHF pair broke a major support trend line on the hourly chart, which may ignite more losses moving ahead.
  • Swiss Trade Balance released by the Federal Customs Administration posted a trade surplus of 2,544M in Dec 2015, less than the forecast of 3,330M.
  • Swiss exports were also lower compared with the last reading, and came in at 16,143M.

Technical Analysis

The USDCHF pair recently weakened, and even broke a couple of bullish trend lines on the hourly chart. The pair also cleared the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.0075 low to 1.0167 high, suggesting a move towards the 61.8% Fib level is also possible.


The most important support is near the 100 hourly simple moving average, as it is coinciding with the 76.4% Fib level.

On the upside, the broken trend lines may now act as a resistance area for the USDCHF pair, and might stall gains.

Swiss Trade Balance

Swiss Trade Balance, which is a measure of balance amount between import and export was released by the Federal Customs Administration. The forecast was lined up for a trade surplus of 3,330M in Dec 2015. However, the outcome was lower than the market expected. The Swiss trade balance came in at 2,544M.

Both the imports and exports were on the lower side. The Swiss exports fell and were lower compared with the last reading, and came in at 16,143M.

Overall, there is a chance of the Swiss Franc trading lower, and if the USDCHF sellers gain traction, then a move towards the 100 MA is possible.

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