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USDCHF – Slow and Steady Uptrend

Technical Bias: Neutral

Key Points

  • US Dollar after completing a short-term correction phase against the Swiss Franc started to move higher.
  • USDCHF pair is forming a breakout structure in the form of an ascending channel.
  • Swiss Retail Sales conducted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office registered a decline of 0.9% in June 2015, which was lower compare with the forecast of a 0.6% fall.

Technical Analysis

The USDCHF pair managed to recover after trading as low as 0.9680. However, there are many barriers, which buyers must clear for more upsides in the near term. The pair is still below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages (hourly), pointing that sellers are active. Moreover, there is an ascending channel formed on the hourly chart, which is likely to act as a catalyst for the next move in the near term.


If buyers manage to clear the highlighted channel and resistance area, then a move towards the last swing high of 0.9850 is possible in the short term.

On the downside, the 50 SMA (H1) could act as a support, coinciding with the channel lower trend line on the hourly chart.

Swiss Retail Sales

There was a major release in Switzerland today, as the Retail Sales, which is a survey of goods sold in the last month and serves as an indicator of the Swiss consumer demand was published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The market was expecting a decline of 0.6% in sales in June 2015, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the result was disappointing, as the Swiss retail sales posted a decline of 0.9%.

Overall, there is no hope for the Swiss Franc in the short term, and more losses cannot be discarded meaning the USDCHF pair could move higher if it manages to break the 100 SMA.

Trade Idea

We can attempt a buy trade if the USDCHF breaks and settles above the highlighted channel resistance area.

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